The S&P 500 closed lower Monday as traders opted for caution ahead of this week’s Federal Reserve meeting, which is widely expected to deliver an interest-rate cut.
At 4:00 p.m. ET (20:00 GMT), the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 215 points, or 0.5%, while the S&P 500 index slipped 0.3%, and the NASDAQ Composite fell 0.1%
All three major U.S. stock indexes recorded positive weeks last week, their second in a row.
Caution ahead of Fed decision
This positive tone exists as many investors expect the Fed to ease monetary policy on Wednesday, especially after the delayed release of September’s core personal consumption expenditures price index — the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge — came in softer than expected at the end of last week.
That cooler inflation reading, combined with signs of a softening labor market and fragile consumer spending, has reinforced the case for the Fed to provide more policy support.
There’s little in the way of economic data to change the narrative Monday, although Tuesday’s JOLTS job openings data could take on additional importance given the monthly official jobs report is now being released after the Fed meeting.
Fed funds futures are pricing in a roughly 88% chance of a Fed cut, according to CME’s FedWatch tool.
The language used by the Fed officials, especially in the post-meeting statement and the projections for 2026, will be closely watched.
“The key question is what will the Fed signal for next year, given that we will be getting a new forecast update from them,” ING analysts said in a note.
“As such, the most dovish they could possibly be is to put a second rate cut for their 2026 forecast, but they will be reluctant,” they added.
Get more stock picks by Wall Street analysts by upgrading to InvestingPro – get 55% off today
Netflix-Paramount deal takes a twist as Paramount Skydance launches rival bid
Corporate earnings are also set to play a role in market direction, with results due from the likes of Lululemon (NASDAQ:LULU), Costco (NASDAQ:COST), Broadcom (NASDAQ:AVGO), Oracle (NYSE:ORCL), and Adobe (NASDAQ:ADBE) this week.
Ahead of Broadcom’s results, The Information reported on Friday that Microsoft was in discussions about switching the design of its custom chips to Broadcom from Marvell Technology Inc (NASDAQ:MRVL).
Separately, S&P Global said Carvana Co (NYSE:CVNA), CRH PLC (NYSE:CRH), and Comfort Systems (NYSE:FIX) will join the S&P 500 index on Dec. 22, a change that typically sparks repositioning among index-tracking funds.
Elsewhere, International Business Machines (NYSE:IBM) announced Monday that it will acquire Confluent (NASDAQ:CFLT) for $31 per share in cash, representing an enterprise value of $11 billion.
Netflix’s (NASDAQ:NFLX) $72 billion deal to acquire Warner Bros Discovery (NASDAQ:WBD) is also still in the spotlight after Paramount launched a rival bid for Warner Bros.
The move from Paramount comes on the heels of President Donald Trump wining that a Netflix-Warner Bros tie up “could be a problem,” sparking concerns about regulatory approval headwinds. The president, however, weighed in further on the topic on Monday, saying he would have to see “what percentage of market [share]” Netflix or Paramount Skydance have to evaluate whether a merger would pose antitrust issues.